Prolonged Cancer Referral Waiting Times in The NHS

The NHS has consistently missed its target of initiating cancer treatment within two months of an urgent referral since 2015. In 2023, the number of patients waiting over two months for treatment reached a record 75,000, a threefold increase over the past decade.  Less than 63% of patients in England are diagnosed and treated within 2 months of referral—well below the 85% target.

Long waits are associated with higher cancer mortality, especially when diagnosis is delayed or mismanaged. For instance, a four-week delay in cancer treatment has been shown to increase mortality risk by 10%, underscoring the clinical significance of these failures. In addition, The NHS faces significant staffing challenges, with over 110,000 vacancies reported. This shortage affects various roles, including radiologists and cancer nurses, leading to delays in diagnosis and treatment. To be added, There are significant disparities in cancer care access and outcomes across different regions and populations in the UK. For example, individuals from non-white and non-English speaking communities often report poorer experiences with cancer care. It should be considered that An increasing number of elderly patients leads to higher demand for cancer services, exacerbating existing challenges.

In addition, Patients report confusion over who to contact, inconsistent care across hospital departments, and poor discharge planning​​. It is mainly due to Lack of interoperable IT systems and Siloed care and unclear service responsibilities under current ICS (Integrated Care Systems) models​.

Data from the 2023 National Cancer Patient Experience Survey (CPES) reinforces this trend. Fewer than 47% of patients felt supported by their GP during treatment, and over 35% received no guidance on treatment side effects or survivorship risks. Transition points—particularly between GP and specialist services—are marked by fragmentation and confusion, with many patients reporting the need to retell their story across disjointed services.

The Health Foundation's 2023 report "Health in 2040: Projected Patterns of Illness in England", projects a 31% increase in the number of people living with cancer by 2040. This rise is primarily attributed to population ageing, not a dramatic change in age-specific cancer rates. Cancer remains one of the most high-impact conditions on the healthcare system, carrying a high score on the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score (CMS) due to its strong association with hospital admissions, mortality, and long-term health needs. The projections suggest that the absolute number of cancer cases will grow significantly, placing greater pressure on diagnostics, treatment capacity, and long-term care planning.

Patients are not only waiting longer, but also navigating disconnected care pathways and inconsistent support. For individuals with fast-progressing cancers, each delay in referral or treatment may mean the difference between recovery and fatality. These systemic gaps reveal a clear opportunity for predictive, data-driven technologies that enable earlier identification, faster triage, and equitable access to cancer services—especially for underserved or at-risk populations.